The combined effect of capacity deployment, product launch strategies, and regional competition is driving a structural reshaping of the ASEAN NEV passenger vehicle brand landscape.
Starting in 2026, the market has entered a phase of large-scale, mature development.
Relying on its full-spectrum product lineup, BYD is expected to see its market share rise from 33.8% in 2026E to 41.7% in 2028E, steadily expanding its lead. VinFast‘s share is projected to decline from 30.2% to 19.8% over the same period, weighed down by a broadening domestic market base and the phase-out of subsidies, which together are gradually eroding its competitive edge. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers including Geely, Chery, GAC, and Changan are steadily gaining share.
As a result, the market structure is transitioning from a “two-brand dominant” model to a new phase characterized by “BYD leading, multiple brands competing.” The production capacity and product strengths of Chinese brands are becoming the core variables driving ASEAN’s electrification momentum.
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